PunditGuy

When Hillary Clinton announced her candidacy for president, she couldn’t possibly believe she’d be walking into a battle between the “old” black vote and the “new” black vote. But that’s exactly where she is today, and a developing generation gap might cost her the votes she thought were in the bag.

When civil rights elders signed on to support Hillary Rodham Clinton’s run for president, it was seen as a coup in the competition for the black vote, especially in the Deep South.

Yet many younger black voters seem to be shrugging off the sway of leaders such as Rep. John Lewis and former Atlanta Mayor Andrew Young, siding instead with Barack Obama’s history-making bid to be the nation’s first black president.

It’s a generational struggle that should serve as a warning to Democrats as they head into primary contests in states with large black populations: The black vote today is anything but monolithic.

It also suggests the influence the civil rights leaders have enjoyed as political kingmakers is waning.

“The figureheads are not actually gatekeepers to the black vote,” said William Jelani Cobb, a 38-year-old history professor at the historically black Spelman College.

“No disrespect, but they don’t speak for us.”

…and a voter with an opinion like that has to be terrifying to Hillary.

Tags:
2008 Election, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Black Caucus, Black Vote

Bill and Hillary Clinton might be wondering, where’s Danny Ocean, Rusty Ryan and the rest of their crew when you need ’em?

A federal judge on Thursday allowed Nevada Democrats to hold presidential voting in casino hotels on the Las Vegas Strip, potentially helping Sen. Barack Obama in the next round of the campaign on Saturday.

For the first time, Nevada Democrats planned to set up nine locations for Saturday’s vote so casino shift workers, who are largely represented by a union that endorsed Obama, could attend caucuses and vote for a presidential candidate.

If you didn’t catch the latest Bill Clinton tirade, it was all about tactics to shut down any attempt to allow the casino vote to go forward. Today’s decision by the judge just popped a 3rd vein in Bubba’s forehead.

The question now is, just how much will this decision benefit Barack Obama? Polls show him behind Hillary in Nevada.

Tags:
2008 Election, Barack Obama, Campaign, Hillary Clinton, Politics, Bill Clinton

So, whom will I email tonight? Roger Ailes? How about James Carville? Or maybe Morgan Fairchild? Naw, I think I’ll just send a quick note to Michael Eisner. Ah, scratch that. I’ll forward a bad joke sent by my aunt to Madeleine Albright. Sure, that’ll do.And then tomorrow night…

Tags:
Gawker, Nick Denton, Susan Estrich

Ross Perot: alive, well, and feisty as ever.

Tags:
2008 Election, Ross Perot, Newsweek, Jonathan Alter

Mike Huckabee has signed a pledge to deport all illegal immigrants.

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee yesterday continued to move to the right on immigration during this year’s presidential campaign, signing a pledge to enforce immigration laws and to make all illegal aliens go home.

The pledge, offered by immigration control advocacy group Numbers USA, commits Mr. Huckabee to oppose a new path to citizenship for current illegal aliens and to cut the number of illegal aliens already in the country through attrition by law enforcement — something Mr. Huckabee said he will achieve through his nine-point immigration plan.

“Some would say it’s a tough plan. It is, but it’s also fair and reasonable,” Mr. Huckabee said.

Just how iron clad is that pledge, Mr. Huckabee? Is it good through the primaries, through the general election, and through your term as president? Or, is it effective through the South Carolina primary this weekend? Or maybe it’s good in some states and not others?

This vow is dubious at best.

Tags:
2008 Election, Campaign, GOP, Huckabee, Immigration, Politics, South Carolina

Barack Obama wants to be president for Americans, and animals too.

Tags:
2008 Election, Barack Obama, Pandering

Karl Rove addressed a group of State Republican officials outlining the steps necessary to beat Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama, depending on who the Democrats choose as their presidential nominee for 2008. Most of his advise is pretty straight forward. Attack Hillary on her commitment to troop funding. Ask her to clarify her position on immigration (and specifically, driver’s licenses for illegals). Republicans can hit Obama on his lack of experience, his weak legislative resume, and above all, his liberalism. Again, pretty clear cut openings for the eventual GOP nominee.

Rove went on to give advice to whomever the Republicans advance as the nominee.

He said the candidates had to first “create a sustaining narrative about themselves.” Then he said the candidate should “immediately engage” on the “kitchen table issues,” like healthcare, education, jobs and the economy.

Third, Rove said the GOP nominee has to show that he is serious about campaigning “aggressively in places where Republicans don’t usually campaign.” Rove said that includes among black, Latino, Asian and union voters.

“We’re going for everybody,” Rove said.

OK, now for a moment, take the current field of GOP candidates and try to envision which can campaign aggressively in places Republicans don’t usually campaign. Go ahead. I’ll wait.

Hard to do isn’t it?

Which candidate in the current field can talk face to face with an ounce of credibility on issues of importance to Black’s, Latino’s, Asian’s and union voters? When an average African-American looks at Mitt Romney, what does he see? Rich, privileged white man? When a union voter looks at Fred Thompson, does he see a guy who will go to the mat on issues that are important to him? Maybe John McCain’s and Mike Huckabee’s liberal tendencies are strong enough to meet these constituents head-on, but even that’s a long shot.

And when it comes to aggressive campaigning, the winner will be the man with the money, and that pretty much leaves everyone out except Mitt Romney. So long as he doesn’t shoot his entire wad during the primaries.

I think the key to winning the White House in 2008 will be a massive GOTV program. If the GOP sticks with a conservative nominee, our candidate won’t get very far with the left leaning independent voter. We’ll need to go to our traditional base, grow it, and get ’em out to the polls. And at the same time, hit the Democratic nominee where it hurts. If we try to put on a face that means something to voters with a liberal slant, we’ll waste valuable resources and gain little for it.

Tags:
2008 Election, Campaign, Election, Fred Thompson, GOP, Huckabee, John McCain, Karl Rove, Mitt Romney, Politics, President, Republicans, Rudy Giuliani

An easily overlooked statistic from last night: 70% of Michigan’s African-American voters did not cast a vote for Hillary Clinton. Exit poll data suggests the so-called vote for “uncommitted” was really a vote for Barack Obama. This community has always put Bill and Hillary on a pedestal. Will they be knocked off in South Carolina? It’s shaping up that way.

Tags:
2008 Election, Bill Clinton, Campaign, CNN, Hillary Clinton, Michigan, Politics

OK, now this is getting really complicated. Huckabee won Iowa. Romney won Wyoming. McCain won New Hampshire. Last night, Romney won Michigan. Oh, and don’t forget about Fred and Rudy. After all, Fred could win South Carolina and Rudy might win Florida. The pundits will give 10 reasons each for why any one of the above could be the nominee. And don’t look for February 5th to be the decider in chief. Anything is possible.

And it’s a mess.

Tags:
2008 Election, Campaign, Fred Thompson, GOP, Huckabee, John McCain, Michigan, Politics, President, Republicans, South Carolina, Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani