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Year: 2008

Moving the Goal Post

Hillary Clinton is losing ground against Barack Obama in Pennsylvania according to a recent poll from Quinnipiac University.

Illinois Sen. Barack Obama is catching up with New York Sen. Hillary Clinton in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary and now trails 50 – 44 percent among likely primary voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 50 – 41 percent Sen. Clinton lead in an April 2 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University.

In this latest survey, one of the biggest shifts is among women who went from 54 – 37 percent for Clinton April 2 to 54 – 41 percent for her today. A look at other groups shows:

— White voters for Clinton 56 – 38 percent, down from 59 – 34 percent last week.

— Black voters back Obama 75 – 17 percent, compared to 73 – 11 percent.

— Men are for Obama 48 – 44 percent, compared to a 46 – 46 percent tie last week.

— Voters under 45 go with Obama 55 – 40, while older voters back Clinton 55 – 38 percent.

This trend will continue right up to the day of the primary. Remember where Hillary was a month or two ago? She held a strong double-digit lead against Obama in Pennsylvania. Problem is, the last few weeks have been tremendously hard on the candidate and it’s showing. As a result, the campaign narrative has changed. Hillary is no longer expected to win by double-digits. Her surrogates are saying that she’ll win by between 5% and 9% in PA, but that will be a BIG BIG BIG win for Hillary. A win in PA was supposed to signal Hillary’s comeback. It was supposed to show her legitimacy as THE real candidate who can win in November. Her overwhelming win there was supposed to provide her with much needed delegates while depriving Obama of the same. Her big double-digit win in PA was supposed to bring her within striking distance of Obama’s popular vote lead.

A 5% to 9% win will accomplish none of these things.

The only thing that will happen is Hillary will use her thin win is yet another reason to stay in the race. The media has made sure everyone pays attention to Pennsylvania as THE crucial point of the Democratic primary. Pennsylvania is supposed to be a game changer. It won’t change a thing.

Technorati Tags:
2008 Election, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Pennsylvania

Amazon Revs Up Its Digital Bad Self

Buried in this New York Times article on the digital-ness of Amazon.com is a word or two about Kindle and a little prognostication about growth of the digital market:

The Kindle electronic book reader, now four months old, is another primary cog in Amazon’s digital strategy. Sales across the book publishing industry are flat; e-books represent one possible future. But the first priority for Amazon is actually getting the device into people’s hands. The company has experienced constant shortages since the Kindle went on sale in December.

“We obviously want to get it fully in stock as quickly as possible,” said Mr. Freed, vice president in charge of the Kindle.

Mr. Freed said that the Kindle was first and foremost a reading device, but that it could also serve as a platform for at least some of Amazon’s other digital offerings. The device can play MP3 files and audio books from Audible, the online audio book retailer that Amazon bought last month for $300 million.

In general, Amazon’s digital team expresses urgency but does not appear to be in a rush. Mr. Kessel noted that it took the company five to seven years to build many of its businesses — books, consumer electronics — to maturity. He expects digital offerings to follow the same path.

A few observations – I find it difficult to believe that Amazon will try to position Kindle as a multi-use device. Most people will use an iPod to listen to an audio book rather than tote around a device that’s easily three times that size. And while they didn’t mention the Kindle as “movie” ready, I’d hardly be convinced that Amazon wants to meet Apple head-on in this market. The future of the downloadable movie is the flat screen television in the living room, not another portable device.

The best thing Amazon can do is continue is find customers for Kindle. To do that, they must refine the hardware. Make it smarter, sexier, and more robust. Oh, and bring the price down too.

Technorati Tags:
Amazon, Digital Publishing, eBooks, Kindle

3G iPhone “in 60 days”

The rumor has been swirling about for some time now, but here is yet another confirmation that a true 3G version of the iPhone will be winging its way to my doorstep soon.

Walt Mossberg, the legendary technology columnist for The Wall Street Journal, made the prediction during an executive summit held by Beet.tv last week. For some reason, Mossberg’s comments were not noticed until over the weekend, perhaps because the title of the post referencing his talk was “FTC Should Stop Verizon from Calling DSL ‘Broadband,’ Walt Mossberg.”

Most of his talk is about how broadband networks in the U.S. are somewhat lacking compared to the rest of the world, and how that’s a big problem for video-over-the-Internet businesses. But at about 6:30 into the clip, he starts talking about wireless broadband, and the iPhone. Mossberg notes that the iPhone already offers a pretty good video experience with its iPod capabilities, and then dismisses concern over the lack of a 3G iPhone with this gem: “It will be 3G in 60 days.“

Mossberg is in the select group that gets early access to important Apple products, he was one of the first to review the initial iPhone last June. So, he’s probably in a good position to know when his next iPhone review might be coming around.

Given that most iPhone users do everything BUT talk on their iPhone, faster data speeds are a must. A big question remains – at what cost? Most of us have already spent hundreds of dollars on this device. Are we ready to buck up again less than a year after the first buy?

In a word? Yes.

Technorati Tags:
Apple, iPhone, 3G

A General Lack of Truthiness

Hillary will stop telling a story about the death of an uninsured pregnant woman. Apparently, it lacks a certain necessary element of effectiveness. The truth.

A hospital has raised questions over the accuracy of the story, and Clinton’s campaign has said although they had no reason to doubt the story, they were unable to confirm the details.

Hmmm…the sniper fire that wasn’t, and now a dead pregnant woman, who might not be dead. Do I detect a pattern here?

Technorati Tags:
2008 Election, Hillary Clinton, Truth

Penn Steps Down

Clinton chief strategist Mark Penn is quitting the campaign. His departure is controversial to say the least.

After it was discovered that Penn had been hired by the Colombian government to help secure a trade deal, one that Sen. Clinton has said she opposes, he realized he needed to step down, sources told ABC News.

Penn’s resignation came under pressure from an angry Sen. Clinton, who believed that Penn had recused himself from any clients who might pose a conflict for her campaign.

This is key. Hillary Clinton isn’t in control of her campaign, or the people who run it.

Clinton spoke about her opposition to the Colombia trade deal last week in her speech to the AFL-CIO in Philadelphia, and on Saturday seven labor unions that are part of the “Change to Win” coalition called for Clinton to fire Penn.

“The Penn situation — and the lack of action by you — raises serious questions about the veracity of your claims of what you would do should you become President,” the unions said in a statement released Saturday.

Again, that’s key. Did Hillary know about Penn’s conflict of interest and if so, how long has she known? If he wasn’t ‘found out’, would Penn still be in charge?

Hillary already has a credibility problem, and this mess only adds fuel to the fire. She can’t be trusted. Watch for this to be THE major issue for the Obama campaign this week.

Technorati Tags:
Hillary Clinton, Mark Penn, Controversy

Scary Stuff

The trial of eight British men accused of plotting to blow up seven airliners using liquid explosives is underway in London. Details of the terrorist’s plan are now becoming public.

The prosecution claimed that the explosive was planned to consist of hydrogen peroxide mixed with a powdered version of the fruit drink Tang. The addition of Tang, “which is an energetic compound”, would aid detonation, said Wright. He claimed that the mixture was intended to be dyed to match the colour of a soft drink, then substituted for the contents of 500ml bottles of Lucozade and Oasis. The original contents of these would be extracted without breaking the seal by means of a syringe, and the resulting hole in the base of the bottle sealed with superglue.

The jury was told that the bombs were to have been detonated using hexamethylene triperoxide diamine (HMTD), an explosive compound prepared using hydrogen peroxide and hexamine. This mix would be concealed in hollowed out batteries, and put together with the liquid explosives and a power source, possibly a disposable camera, once the flight was airborne.

A diary which Wright said was found on one of the accused gave details of the planning. “Mouthwash, blue, red. Calculate exact drops of Tang, plus colour. Make in HP.” And: “Lucozade, red, 1.5 drops, one teaspoon Tang, one teaspoon orange, 12 drops. Oasis, red. On, red dye. Orange, two times mango.”

The men were arrested in August 2006 leading to a worldwide clamp-down on liquids in carry-on baggage, with the ban initially extending even to jam sandwiches, and leading to debates over the relative explosive capabilities of hard and soft cheeses.

This is why we need the patriot act. This is why we need a strong CIA. This is why we need Homeland Security.

These guys got caught (and in the nick of time, I might add). Yet, some would believe their capture is yet another deterrent to other would be terrorists. They couldn’t be more wrong. Radical islamic terrorists won’t stop just because a few of their brothers got caught. They’re planning, plotting, and scheming right now.

They must be stopped.

Technorati Tags:
Radical Islam, Terrorism, Terrorist, London, Plot, Homeland Security, Patriot Act

Publishers Believe Kindle Has Helped eBook Market

The eBook reader hasn’t actually revolutionized the market, but some publishing officials are willing to concede that they’ve seen increased eBook sales.

Sales for the most popular books are in the hundreds, comparable to the number for the Sony Reader, which came out in 2006.

“The Kindle has increased awareness. Publishers have told me that in some cases the Sony numbers were double or triple to what they had been,” says Michael Smith, head of the International Digital Publishing Forum, which tracks e-book sales.

While Kindle owners are loving the device and reading more because of it, the eBook reader hasn’t come close to reaching critical mass just yet, most likely due to its steep price. The Kindle sells for $399.

Public sightings of eBook devices like the Kindle remain rare compared to iPods and even iPhones. But, the industry has jumped in. Companies like Hachette, Simon & Schuster and Random House use Sony Readers to review book manuscripts.

eBook sales are growing. The market was $6 million in 2002 and is now measured at around $33 million. Still, eBook sales are less than 1% of the $35 billion dollar publishing business.

More: Why eBook readers don’t stand a chance.

Technorati Tags:
eBooks, Publishing, Amazon, Kindle, Industry, Sony Reader

New Global Publishing Program?

Or yet another publisher driven internet strategy bound for failure?

Hyperion President and founding publisher Robert S. Miller is bailing on that company to “launch a new global publishing program based on a non-traditional business model” at HarperCollins.

According to the press release, “Miller will publish approximately 25 popular-priced books per year in multiple physical and digital formats including those as yet unspecified, with the aim to combine the best practices of trade publishing while taking full advantage of the internet for sales, marketing and distribution. Authors will be compensated through a profit sharing model as opposed to a traditional royalty, and books will be promoted utilizing on-line publicity, advertising and marketing.” Translation, probably: Whatever it is that Bob will be publishing will be printed on demand, or you will be able to read it on your Kindle-type device, or, eventually, by using implanted technology in your eyeballs that will allow you to turn pages by blinking.

Knowing as much as I do about the publishing industry, Emily at Galleycat probably isn’t too far off with her guesstimate of Miller’s plans. Here’s hoping though that whatever Bob Miller accomplishes at HC, it leans heavily toward the new business model side of things. New ideas are few and proactivity is low in publisherland. I’ll be watching…

UPDATE: You gotta love this headline from the Wall Street Journal. Is that a way to freak out authors or what?

More: P.Viktor chimes in with an authors opinion on HarperCollins’ new program.

Technorati Tags:
Bob Miller, Hyperion, HarperCollins, Publishing

Obama Bribes Voters

If you were a University student and you had a choice to go listen to Bill Clinton, or get free Dave Matthews concert tickets courtesy of Barack Obama, what would you do?

(IndyStar) It was an unexpected showdown of surrogates for Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton here Wednesday, and it sure looked like Obama’s representative whipped up the most excitement.

As former President Bill Clinton was extolling his wife’s credentials, Obama’s campaign office in Bloomington began giving away tickets to Sunday’s Dave Matthews concert at Assembly Hall.

Jason Schechtman, 19, Deerfield, Ill., a student at IU, got his tickets about 8 p.m. after waiting more than three hours. He met folks in line who said they’d left the Clinton rally to wait for tickets.

“I was leaning toward Obama, but this sealed the deal for sure,” he said. “The Obama campaign announced this right as (Bill Clinton) was about to speak, and it brought everyone from over there to over here.”

Barack Obama, a president for the shallow and superficial.

Technorati Tags:

2008 Election, Barack Obama, Bribe

Even Steven

Obama pulled even with Clinton in endorsements from top elected officials.

Obama yesterday won the backing of Wyoming Governor Dave Freudenthal, who became the sixth head of a Republican-leaning state to come out for him in his bid for the Democratic presidential nomination. In the past week, Obama picked up support from first-term Senators Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota and Bob Casey of Pennsylvania. Clinton, backed by two governors from Republican states, gained no superdelegates in that time.

Obama, 46, is endorsed by 16 U.S. House freshmen to Clinton’s 6, and 40 percent of his congressional allies are from “red states,” or those that voted for President George W. Bush in 2004, compared with one-quarter for Clinton. That bolsters the Obama campaign’s argument that he would have broader backing in the general election.

At the end of the day, do endorsements really matter anymore? Sure it signals party solidarity, but in the voters mind, is one endorsement more significant than another? The media goes crazy when a party stalwart like Ted Kennedy decides to align with Obama, but we now know it really didn’t matter that much to the voter. The same might be said about Bill Richardson’s endorsement. Will Hispanics suddenly love Barack just because Bill does? I don’t think it works that way anymore. Mostly, I think the public’s disconnectedness is to blame. Not enough people follow the primary race, or current events in general. They have name recognition with the candidates, but they aren’t necessarily familiar with the daily jousting. I just can’t believe the media pomp and circumstance around this endorsement or that one really amounts to much, today.

Technorati Tags:
2008 Election, Barack Obama, Bill Richardson, Hillary Clinton, Ted Kennedy, Hispanics, Voters, Electorate, Endorsements