Moving the Goal Post

Hillary Clinton is losing ground against Barack Obama in Pennsylvania according to a recent poll from Quinnipiac University.

Illinois Sen. Barack Obama is catching up with New York Sen. Hillary Clinton in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary and now trails 50 – 44 percent among likely primary voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 50 – 41 percent Sen. Clinton lead in an April 2 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University.

In this latest survey, one of the biggest shifts is among women who went from 54 – 37 percent for Clinton April 2 to 54 – 41 percent for her today. A look at other groups shows:

— White voters for Clinton 56 – 38 percent, down from 59 – 34 percent last week.

— Black voters back Obama 75 – 17 percent, compared to 73 – 11 percent.

— Men are for Obama 48 – 44 percent, compared to a 46 – 46 percent tie last week.

— Voters under 45 go with Obama 55 – 40, while older voters back Clinton 55 – 38 percent.

This trend will continue right up to the day of the primary. Remember where Hillary was a month or two ago? She held a strong double-digit lead against Obama in Pennsylvania. Problem is, the last few weeks have been tremendously hard on the candidate and it’s showing. As a result, the campaign narrative has changed. Hillary is no longer expected to win by double-digits. Her surrogates are saying that she’ll win by between 5% and 9% in PA, but that will be a BIG BIG BIG win for Hillary. A win in PA was suppose to signal Hillary’s comeback. It was suppose to show her legitimacy as THE real candidate who can win in November. Her overwhelming win there was suppose to provide her with much needed delegates while depriving Obama of the same. Her big double-digit win in PA was suppose to bring her within striking distance of Obama’s popular vote lead.

A 5% to 9% win will accomplish none of these things.

The only thing that will happen is Hillary will use her thin win is yet another reason to stay in the race. The media has made sure everyone pays attention to Pennsylvania as THE crucial point of the Democratic primary. Pennsylvania is suppose to be a game changer. It won’t change a thing.

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2008 Election, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Pennsylvania

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